Goliad, El Campo and Weimar are all likely to drop a classification based on average daily attendance for early February's UIL realignment.
Based on numbers supplied by school officials and coaches from around the area, the three schools are likely to fall a classification. El Campo turned in a number of 975, well below the likely cutoff for Class 4A of 999.
Goliad turned in 414, only two more than Class 2A, Division II Edna and several other schools of similar size. Palacios could also be in danger of dropping to Class 2A, Division II. The Sharks turned in 435, which is right at the cutoff of 2010's realignment.
That might not be a bad thing for Palacios, which would mean they would likely join Edna, Industrial and Van Vleck in a district instead of El Campo and Wharton.
Weimar likely will drop to Class 1A, Division I after turning in a number of 195. The cutoff between the two classifications was 200 in 2010, but that could shift this year, which would put several other schools in the area on the brink.
Refugio and Tidehaven both turned in numbers that are near that cutoff, with Tidehaven submitting 203 and Refugio submitting 204. A move of the cutoff up could push both down a classification.
Louise, after spending the last realignment in Class 1A, Division I and sharing a district with Shiner and Ganado, is likely to fall back to Division II after submitting 146.5.
REALIGNMENT GAME: Where will East, West and Calhoun end up
• With whom?: In Region III, with Bay City, Rosenberg Terry, Richmond Foster, Richmond George Ranch, Lamar Consolidated.
WHY?: With El Campo dropping to Class 3A, it creates an opening to create a hybrid of the current District 23-4A and the northern half of District 30-4A. Calhoun is pushed back into Region III with Victoria East and West, joining with Bay City and the cluster of schools in Rosenberg and Richmond (George Ranch, which will play its first varsity season in 2012, would also be in this district.) The total hits the ideal eight, and allows schools like Freeport Brazosport to move in with schools in the Houston area or with the Fort Bend and Pearland schools.
• HOW LIKELY: Very unlikely. It's not impossible, but with George Ranch stepping in to take El Campo's spot and with more options closer for Rosenberg, the likelihood that East, West and Calhoun would be dragged north is low at best.
THE MOST LIKELY
• With whom?: With G-P, Beeville, CC Ray, CC Miller and CC Moody
WHY?: This is Carl Padilla's (@padillapoll on Twitter) predicted District 30-4A - East, West and Calhoun stay with G-P and Beeville, and Floresville moves in with schools closer to it on the south side of San Antonio. Adding to the mix are three CCISD schools - Ray, Moody and Miller, which is moving back up to Class 4A because of growth. This creates a district where the Crossroads schools are immediately back at the top of the heap, with two Corpus Christi schools that were mediocre last year in Moody and Ray, and Miller being middling also.
• HOW LIKELY: Pretty likely. The UIL has historically grouped Victoria ISD with CCISD schools at similar levels going back decades, and this creates a nice little cluster of teams while creating new rivalries in other sports.
STAYING THE SAME
• With whom?: Same district as 2010's realignment, with G-P, Beeville and Floresville
WHY?: District 30-4A stays the same from the 2010 realignment to 2012's. Seeing no reason to break up a six team district in which no trip is longer than 120 miles, the UIL opts to keep Floresville with the Victoria ISD schools, Calhoun, Beeville and Gregory-Portland. The UIL would be operating under the logic of not breaking something that works, allowing these six teams to stay together, even as a smaller than normal district for Class 4A.
• HOW LIKELY: It would keep together six teams in five districts, which despite that one disparity have formed some chemistry is most sports as regular rivals. This one has a less than 50 percent chance, though, because there are too many natural rivals for Floresville closer to San Antonio. The five teams near the coast - G-P, East, West, Calhoun and Beeville - are likely to stay together in almost any realignment at this point.
• With whom?: A different set of Corpus Christi teams - Calallen, Tuloso-Midway and Alice - along with G-P and Beeville.
WHY?: Rather than picking up three Corpus Christi ISD teams, the UIL drops Floresville for three teams on the fringe of Corpus Christi in Tuloso-Midway, Calallen and Alice, which join G-P, East, West, Calhoun and Beeville to make an eight-team district. The look is similar to Carl Padilla's suggestion, but is more competitive with perennial powerhouse Calallen in the district.
• HOW LIKELY: 50/50. The Padilla suggestion is more likely since this would split three teams from traditional rival Flour Bluff. But it makes sense travel-wise, because T-M and Calallen are closer to the Crossroads teams than Ray, Miller or Moody, and would make for a more competitive district. The same problem as the current District 30-4A set up would arise here, too - you would have an eight-team district across seven school districts.
SNAPSHOT ENROLLMENT NUMBERS
Class 4A/Class 5A: About 2,000 • Class 4A/Class 3A: About 1,000
• Class 3A/Class 2A, Division I: About 435
• Class 2A, Division I/Division II: Around 275
• Class 2A, Division II/Class 1A, Division I: About 200 students
• Class 1A, Division I/Division II: About 150
STAYING CLASS 4A
• Victoria East - 1,816
• Victoria West - 1,661
• Calhoun - 1,130
ON THE 4A/3A BUBBLE
• Bay City - 1,090
• El Campo - 975
STAYING CLASS 3A
• Cuero - 575
• Gonzales - 702
• Wharton - 608
ON 3A/2A, D-I BUBBLE
• Yoakum - 477
• Palacios - 435
• Goliad - 414
STAYING 2A, D-I
• Edna - 412
• Hallettsville - 322
• Industrial - 328
• Rice Cons. - 343
ON 2A, D-I/2A, D-II BUBBLE
• Van Vleck - 283
STAYING 2A, D-II
• Boling - 274
• East Bernard - 274
• Karnes City - 269
• Nixon-Smiley - 263
ON THE 2A, D-II/1A, D-I BUBBLE
• Schulenburg - 212.5
• Bloomington - 211
• Refugio - 204
• Tidehaven - 203
• Weimar - 195
STAYING 1A, D-I
• Shiner - 180
• Ganado - 189
• Flatonia - 169
• Yorktown - 164
• Kenedy - 165
ON 1A, D-I/1A, D-II BUBBLE
• Louise - 146.5
STAYING 1A, D-II
• Woodsboro - 147
• Runge - 100